"probabilistic tracker"

Hi -

I wanted to see if it is possible to embed a probabilistic event within a tracker -- I want to move the development of cancer into a tracker as it would markedly simplify my model structure -- so the basic structure would be a microsimulated subject has a monthly probability of cancer development and the subject's tracker modifies to 1 from 0 based on that probability each time it moves through that state. 

I wanted to see if that is possible and what the syntax would be.

Thanks!

Keith

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  • Official comment

    You can create a uniform distribution from 0 to 1, then compare a new sample of that distribution to a probability to see if cancer has developed.

    Let's assume the following.

    • The uniform distribution has index 11. We need the index rather than the name to use the DistForce function.
    • The probability of cancer uses variable pCancer.
    • The tracker for cancer is t_cancer.

    Use the following tracker modification to test for cancer.

    • t_cancer = if(DistForce(11)<=pCancer; 1; 0)

    Just remember not to perform that check again if the person already has cancer or it could reset the cancer tracker back to 0.

    Andrew

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