Change in transitional probability and tunnel states
I have a markov model with three states -- Pre-cancerous, Cancerous and Death --annual cycle length and 100 cycles. The cohort start at Pre-cancerous state. Probability of transitioning from Cancerous state back to Pre-cancerous state is 0.3 after one year in the Cancerous state, with an annual relative reduction of 7% thereafter. I use the following approach to input this probability.
I set Tunnel max=100 for Cancerous state, and write the transitional probability as:
Is this the correct approach for the given scenario? Thank you!